Outguess Ethan – Inaugural Contest

All right, guys. One way or another, the Oscar season will come to close Sunday night (and this blog will finally turn its attention back towards film in general rather than awards season babble). So it’s time for me to go on the record with my last round of predictions for the year.

Many of my readers will already be aware that every year I like to run a little Oscar pool, distributing ballots amongst friends and family. Normally, we just compete for bragging rights, but this year, I think circumstances require something extra. Obviously, I can’t just pass out ballots in the usual fashion, which is actually fine, since, with this being my first Oscars on the new blog and all, I’ve got the opportunity here to get way more people in on the pool, no matter where they are. And just to make sure that I do get some extra attention, I’m adding some incentive.

So here’s the rules: cast a ballot by commenting on this post, listing who you think will win each of the Academy’s 24 competitive categories (check out the “Nominations” page for the full list of categories and nominees). Include your name when you post, so I have you on the record (apologies to any random folk reading this blog, but I’m limiting the contest to friends for this trial run). Note that I use a WEIGHTED ballot – getting the most categories right might not get you the win; I’ll include the point distribution with my predictions. At the end of Oscar night, if one of you scores higher on your ballot than I do – congratulations, you’ve outguessed Ethan, and won a DVD of your choice (available for $15 or less on Amazon). If more than one person beats me, the person with the highest score wins. I’ll include a tie-breaker question at the end of my predictions, just in case two of you should both beat me and have the exact same score; include your answer to the tie-breaker along with your ballot.

So I guess you’ve got to ask yourself one question, dear reader: “do I feel lucky?”

Ethan’s Picks:
Short Film-Live Action (1 point): God of Love

Short Film-Animated (1): Madagascar, A Day Journey

Documentary-Short Subject (1): Poster Girl

Sound Editing (1): Inception

Sound Mixing (1): Inception

Film Editing (2): The Social Network

Makeup (2): The Wolfman

Costume Design (2): The King’s Speech

Art Direction (2): The King’s Speech

Cinematography (2): True Grit

Visual Effects (2): Inception

Original Song (2): “We Belong Together,” Randy Newman, “Toy Story 3”

Animated Feature (3): Toy Story 3

Documentary Feature (3): Inside Job

Foreign Language Film (3): In a Better Place (Denmark)

Original Score (3): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”

Original Screenplay (3): David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”

Adapted Screenplay (3): Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”

Supporting Actor (3): Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

Supporting Actress (3): Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Actor (4): Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”

Actress (4): Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”

Director (4): Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”

Picture (5): The King’s Speech

Tie-breaking question: Only one film in history racked up 12 total Oscar nominations, won the Director’s Guild prize, and still lost Best Picture. What was that film?

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19 Comments

Filed under Predictions

19 responses to “Outguess Ethan – Inaugural Contest

  1. Lack of Information Sets makes Simon a Happy Boy.

    Gonna get Ethan to buy me Jackass 3D. w00t!

  2. Elaine

    Oooo EXCITEMENT! A PRIZE! Upping the stakes… must go analyze…

  3. Elaine

    Alright. Here we go:
    Best Documentary Short: Poster Girl
    Best Short Film (Animated): Madagascar, a Journey Diary
    Best Short Film (Live Action): God of Love
    Best Sound Mixing: Inception
    Best Sound Editing: Inception
    Best Animated Feature: Toy Story
    Best Documentary Feature: Restrepo
    Best Foreign Language Film: In a Better World
    Best Original Song: “Coming Home”–Country Strong
    Best Makeup: The Wolfman
    Best Visual Effects: Inception
    Best Film Editing: The Social Network
    Best Costume Design: True Grit
    Best Art Direction: The King’s Speech
    Best Cinematography: The King’s Speech
    Best Original Score: The Social Network
    Best Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman
    Best Actor: Colin Firth
    Best Director: David Fincher
    Best Picture: The Social Network

    Yup. That’s right. I’m sticking to The Social Network. Even if it costs me David Tennant’s “Hamlet” on DVD. 😛
    The toughest for me to decide was Cinematography… they’re all visually beautiful films, each different in that beauty. Ahh!

    • Shannon McKenna

      Animated Film: Toy Story 3
      Best Picture: The King’s Speech
      Director: David Fincher
      Best Actor: Colin Firth
      Best Actress: Natalie Portman
      Visual Effects: Inception
      Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
      Best Support Actor: Christian Bale 🙂
      Short Film (Live Action): Wish 143
      Foreign Language Film: In A Better World
      Documentary Feature: Inside Job
      Sound Mixing: Inception
      Film Editing: The Social Network
      Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
      Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
      Short Film (Animated): The Gruffalo
      Art Direction: The King’s Speech
      Cinematography: True Grit
      Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
      Documentary Short Subject: Poster Girl
      Makeup: The Wolfman
      Score: The King’s Speech
      Original Song: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)
      Sound Editing: Inception

      I’ll pick my movie after I win. 🙂
      The answer to the tie-breaker is Reds. Russian Revolution, baby!

  4. Robert

    Whoo!

    Best Documentary Short: Warriors of Qiugang
    Best Short Film (Animated): Madagascar, a Journey Diary
    Best Short Film (Live Action): Wish 143
    Best Sound Mixing: Inception
    Best Sound Editing: Inception
    Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
    Best Documentary Feature: Restrepo
    Best Foreign Language Film: In a Better World
    Best Original Song: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)
    Best Makeup: The Wolfman
    Best Visual Effects: Inception
    Best Film Editing: The Social Network
    Best Costume Design: The King’s Speech
    Best Art Direction: The King’s Speech
    Best Cinematography: True Grit
    Best Original Score: The Social Network
    Best Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman
    Best Actor: Colin Firth
    Best Director: David Fincher
    Best Picture: The King’s Speech

    Disclaimer: I have seen none of any part of the films listed above. =p

  5. Meredith

    Short Film-Live Action (1 point): Wish 143
    Short Film-Animated (1): Madagascar, A Day Journey
    Documentary-Short Subject (1): Warriors of Quigang
    Sound Editing (1): Inception
    Sound Mixing (1): The King’s Speech
    Film Editing (2): The Social Network
    Makeup (2): The Wolfman
    Costume Design (2): The King’s Speech
    Art Direction (2): The King’s Speech
    Cinematography (2): True Grit
    Visual Effects (2): Inception
    Original Song (2): “I will Rise” 127 Hours
    Animated Feature (3): Toy Story 3
    Documentary Feature (3): Inside Job
    Foreign Language Film (3): In a Better World (Denmark)
    Original Score (3): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”
    Original Screenplay (3): David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”
    Adapted Screenplay (3): Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
    Supporting Actor (3): Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
    Supporting Actress (3): Melissa Leo
    Actor (4): Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Actress (4): Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
    Director (4): David Fincher “The Social Network”
    Picture (5): The King’s Speech

  6. Austin

    All I saw were Toy Story 3 and Alice in Wonderland… but here goes:

    Best Documentary Short: Killing in the Name
    Best Short Film (Animated): The Lost Thing
    Best Short Film (Live Action): Wish 143
    Best Sound Mixing: Inception
    Best Sound Editing: Inception
    Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
    Best Documentary Feature: Restrepo
    Best Foreign Language Film: Outside the Law
    Best Original Song: “We Belong Together” (Toy Story 3)
    Best Makeup: Barney’s Version
    Best Visual Effects: Alice in Wonderland
    Best Film Editing: The Social Network
    Best Costume Design: The King’s Speech
    Best Art Direction: Inception
    Best Cinematography: The King’s Speech
    Best Original Score: The Social Network
    Best Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter
    Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman
    Best Actor: Colin Firth
    Best Director: David Fincher
    Best Picture: The King’s Speech

  7. Cyrus

    Short Film-Live Action (1 point): Na Wewe

    Short Film-Animated (1): Day & Night

    Documentary-Short Subject (1): Strangers No More

    Sound Editing (1): Inception

    Sound Mixing (1): Inception

    Film Editing (2): The Social Network

    Makeup (2): The Wolfman

    Costume Design (2): Alice in Wonderland

    Art Direction (2): Alice in Wonderland

    Cinematography (2): True Grit

    Visual Effects (2): Inception

    Original Song (2): “We Belong Together,” Randy Newman, “Toy Story 3″

    Animated Feature (3): Toy Story 3

    Documentary Feature (3): Inside Job

    Foreign Language Film (3): Incendies (Canada)

    Original Score (3): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”

    Original Screenplay (3): David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”

    Adapted Screenplay (3): Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”

    Supporting Actor (3): Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

    Supporting Actress (3): Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”

    Actor (4): Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”

    Actress (4): Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”

    Director (4): David Fincher, “The Social Network”

    Picture (5): The King’s Speech

    Tie-breaking question: Only one film in history racked up 12 total Oscar nominations, won the Director’s Guild prize, and still lost Best Picture. What was that film?

  8. Camille

    I’ve just seen The Social Network and Inception but here goes…

    Short Film-Live Action: Wish 143
    Short Film-Animated: Gruffalo
    Documentary-Short Subject: Poster Girl
    Sound Editing: Inception
    Sound Mixing: Inception
    Film Editing: The Social Network
    Makeup: The Wolfman
    Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
    Art Direction: The King’s Speech
    Cinematography: True Grit
    Visual Effects: Inception
    Original Song: “We Belong Together,” Randy Newman
    Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
    Documentary Feature: Exit Through the Gift Shop
    Foreign Language Film: Dogtooth
    Original Score: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, The Social Network
    Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King’s Speech
    Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
    Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
    Actor: Colin Firth
    Actress: Natalie Portman
    Director: David Fincher
    Picture: The King’s Speech

  9. Christian

    Short Film-Live Action: Wish 143
    Short Film-Animated: Madagascar, a Journey Diary
    Documentary-Short Subject: Sun Come Up
    Sound Editing: Inception
    Sound Mixing: The Social Network
    Film Editing: The King’s Speech
    Makeup: The Way Back
    Costume Design: True Grit
    Art Direction: Inception
    Cinematography: Wally Pfister, “Inception”
    Visual Effects: Inception
    Original Song: “We Belong Together,” from “Toy Story 3″
    Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
    Documentary Feature: Waste Land
    Foreign Language Film: Outside the Law (Algeria)
    Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”
    Original Screenplay: Paul Tamasy, Scott Silver, Eric Johnson, The Fighter
    Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin Social Network
    Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
    Actor: Colin Firth
    Actress: Natalie Portman
    Director: Tom Hooper
    Picture: The King’s Speech

  10. Short Film-Live Action (1 point): First Scene of Jackass 3-D
    Short Film-Animated (1): Second Scene of Jackass 3-D
    Documentary-Short Subject (1): Jackass 3-D
    Sound Editing (1): Jackass 3D
    Sound Mixing (1): Jackass 3D
    Film Editing (2): Jackass 3D
    Makeup (2): Jackass 3D
    Costume Design (2): The King’s Speech
    Art Direction (2): Jackass 3D
    Cinematography (2): Jackass 3D
    Visual Effects (2): Jackass 3D
    Original Song (2): “You Can’t Roller Skate In a Buffalo Herd,” Roger Miller, “Jackass 3D”
    Animated Feature (3): Toy Story 3D
    Documentary Feature (3): Jackass 3D
    Foreign Language Film (3): Jacko-asso en tres-D (Spanish)
    Original Score (3): Jackass 3D: Music from the Motion Picture , “Jackass 3-D”
    Original Screenplay (3): Preston Lacy, “Jackass 3-D”
    Adapted Screenplay (3): Preston Lacy, “Jackass 3-D” (adapted from Jackass 2-D)
    Supporting Actor (3): Tony Hawk, “Jackass 3-D”
    Supporting Actress (3): Wendy de Coito “Jackass 3-D”
    Actor (4): Steve-O, “Jackass 3-D”
    Actress (4): April Margera “Jackass 3-D”
    Director (4): Jeff Tremaine, “Jackass 3-D”
    Picture (5): The Social Network

    Got this shit in the bag son

  11. Best Picture: The Social Network
    Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
    Best Actor: James Franco, “127 Hours”
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
    Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Ethan and Joel Coen, “True Grit”
    Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Cinematography: Matthew Libatique, “Black Swan”
    Best Art Director: True Grit
    Best Costume Design: The King’s Speech
    Best Film Editing: The Social Network
    Best Visual Effects: Alice in Wonderland
    Best Makeup: The Wolfman
    Best Original Song: “We Belong Together,” from “Toy Story 3″
    Best Foreign Language Film: Biutiful (Mexico)
    Best Documentary Feature: Restrepo
    Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
    Best Sound Editing: True Grit
    Best Sound Mixing: The Social Network
    Best Short Film (Live Action): The Crush
    Best Short Film (Animated): Day & Night
    Best Documentary Short: Strangers No More

    Cool beans

  12. Short Film-Live Action (1 point): The Confession

    Short Film-Animated (1): Day and Night

    Documentary-Short Subject (1): Killing in the Name

    Sound Editing (1): Tron: Legacy

    Sound Mixing (1): The King’s Speech

    Film Editing (2): 127 Hours

    Makeup (2): The Wolfman

    Costume Design (2): I Am Love

    Art Direction (2): Alice in Wonderland

    Cinematography (2): Black Swan

    Visual Effects (2): Inception

    Original Song (2): “If I Rise” from 127 Hours

    Animated Feature (3): Toy Story 3

    Documentary Feature (3): Gasland

    Foreign Language Film (3): In a Better Place

    Original Score (3): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”

    Original Screenplay (3): David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”

    Adapted Screenplay (3): Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”

    Supporting Actor (3): Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

    Supporting Actress (3): Jacki Weaver “Animal Kingdom”

    Actor (4): Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”

    Actress (4): Michelle Williams “Blue Valentine”

    Director (4): Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”

    Picture (5): The King’s Speech

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